Dallas Stars at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-11-11 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 3 Dallas Stars (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 59.0%

DAL: 41.0%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.47

DAL: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • OTT at home vs DAL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-30	DAL 6 - 1 OTT	DAL	OTT
2025-11-11	OTT 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	OTT
2025-01-12	OTT 3 - 2 DAL	OTT	OTT
2025-01-02	DAL 4 - 2 OTT	DAL	OTT
2024-02-22	OTT 4 - 1 DAL	OTT	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	15	0	0.88
1	DAL	9	0	0.38
2	OTT	12	0	0.70
2	DAL	10	0	0.62
3	OTT	10	0	0.47
3	DAL	19	0	1.13
4	OTT	3	0	0.36
4	DAL	4	1	0.59

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 3 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0