Calgary Flames at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2025-11-11 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 3 - 2 Calgary Flames

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

STL: 61.3%

CGY: 38.7%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.39

CGY: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	STL	CGY
Season SV%	0.869	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.56	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	40	38	2	95.0%	2.77	3	0.77
CGY	Dustin Wolf	31	28	3	90.3%	3.04	2	0.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • STL at home vs CGY: 4-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-18	CGY 2 - 1 STL	CGY	CGY
2025-11-11	STL 3 - 2 CGY	STL	STL
2025-10-11	CGY 2 - 4 STL	STL	CGY
2025-01-16	STL 4 - 1 CGY	STL	STL
2025-01-14	STL 2 - 1 CGY	STL	STL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	15	1	1.33
1	CGY	14	0	0.64
2	STL	17	1	1.44
2	CGY	16	2	1.18
3	STL	9	0	0.27
3	CGY	22	1	0.94

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown