San Jose Sharks at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2025-11-11 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 1 - 2 San Jose Sharks (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MIN: 60.1%

SJS: 39.9%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.55

SJS: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

Stat	MIN	SJS
Season SV%	0.912	0.896
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.47	3.36

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	18	16	2	88.9%	2.03	1	0.03
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	29	28	1	96.6%	2.84	1	1.84

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • MIN at home vs SJS: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-31	SJS 4 - 3 MIN	SJS	MIN
2025-11-11	MIN 1 - 2 SJS	SJS	MIN
2025-10-26	MIN 5 - 6 SJS	SJS	MIN
2025-04-09	MIN 8 - 7 SJS	MIN	MIN
2025-01-11	SJS 1 - 3 MIN	MIN	MIN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	13	0	0.88
1	SJS	9	1	0.62
2	MIN	20	1	1.54
2	SJS	8	0	0.37
3	MIN	12	0	0.42
3	SJS	13	0	0.94
4	MIN	0	0	0.00
4	SJS	1	0	0.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 1 - 2 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0