Anaheim Ducks at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-11-11 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 1 Anaheim Ducks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 74.1%

ANA: 25.9%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.11

ANA: 2.28

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Stat	COL	ANA
Season SV%	0.919	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.13	3.15

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Scott Wedgewood	36	35	1	97.2%	3.04	1	2.04
ANA	Lukas Dostal	36	32	4	88.9%	4.32	3	0.32

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • COL at home vs ANA: 6-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-03	ANA 1 - 5 COL	COL	ANA
2026-01-21	COL 1 - 2 ANA	ANA	COL
2025-11-11	COL 4 - 1 ANA	COL	COL
2025-04-13	ANA 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2024-12-20	ANA 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	18	1	1.50
1	ANA	15	1	1.23
2	COL	16	1	1.07
2	ANA	11	0	0.64
3	COL	17	1	1.75
3	ANA	19	0	1.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 74.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.4

Score Breakdown