Winnipeg Jets at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2025-11-11 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 3 - 5 Winnipeg Jets

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VAN: 47.5%

WPG: 52.5%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.30

WPG: 3.28

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	VAN	WPG
Season SV%	0.905	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.72	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Thatcher Demko	30	25	5	83.3%	4.70	6	-0.30
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	33	30	3	90.9%	2.97	1	-0.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • VAN at home vs WPG: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	WPG 3 - 2 VAN	WPG	WPG
2026-02-25	VAN 2 - 3 WPG	WPG	VAN
2025-11-11	VAN 3 - 5 WPG	WPG	WPG
2025-03-30	WPG 3 - 1 VAN	WPG	WPG
2025-03-18	VAN 6 - 2 WPG	VAN	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	15	0	1.01
1	WPG	16	2	1.18
2	VAN	13	1	0.85
2	WPG	16	1	1.53
3	VAN	22	0	1.12
3	WPG	13	3	1.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown