New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-11-12 • Benchmark International Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 7 New York Rangers
🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 51.9%
NYR: 48.1%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.26
NYR: 2.96
Total Goals
Median: 6.5
Over 5.5: 69%
Over 6.5: 55%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
NYR
Igor Shesterkin - 25-19-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.50 GAA
| Stat | TBL | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.919 | 0.912 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.615 | 0.914 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.51 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • TBL at home vs NYR: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | TBL 2 - 4 NYR | NYR | TBL |
| 2025-11-29 | NYR 1 - 4 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-11-12 | TBL 3 - 7 NYR | NYR | TBL |
| 2025-04-17 | NYR 4 - 0 TBL | NYR | TBL |
| 2025-04-07 | NYR 1 - 5 TBL | TBL | TBL |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 51.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 10.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 7 New York Rangers
Expected: 3.3 - 3.0
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