New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-11-12 • Benchmark International Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 7 New York Rangers
🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 59.5%
NYR: 40.5%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.09
NYR: 2.83
Total Goals
Median: 5.9
Over 5.5: 53%
Over 6.5: 39%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
NYR
Igor Shesterkin - 17-12-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.45 GAA
| Stat | TBL | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.942 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.615 | 0.914 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.51 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TBL at home vs NYR: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-29 | NYR 1 - 4 TBL | TBL | NYR |
| 2025-11-12 | TBL 3 - 7 NYR | NYR | TBL |
| 2025-04-17 | NYR 4 - 0 TBL | NYR | NYR |
| 2025-04-07 | NYR 1 - 5 TBL | TBL | NYR |
| 2024-12-28 | TBL 6 - 2 NYR | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17:32 | NYR | Goal |
| 1 | 16:20 | NYR | Goal |
| 1 | 13:59 | NYR | Goal |
| 1 | 07:08 | NYR | Goal |
| 1 | 06:04 | NYR | Goal |
| 1 | 03:31 | NYR | Goal |
| 1 | 01:09 | NYR | Goal |
| 2 | 18:19 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 17:49 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 05:03 | NYR | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 10.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 7 New York Rangers
Expected: 3.1 - 2.8