New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-11-12 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 7 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 62.5%

NYR: 37.5%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.54

NYR: 2.70

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	TBL	NYR
Season SV%	0.913	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	21	14	7	66.7%	3.27	2	-3.73
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	36	33	3	91.7%	4.67	3	1.67

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • TBL at home vs NYR: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	TBL 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-11-29	NYR 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-12	TBL 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-04-17	NYR 4 - 0 TBL	NYR	TBL
2025-04-07	NYR 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	14	1	1.18
1	NYR	11	0	0.80
2	TBL	19	0	1.16
2	NYR	6	1	0.42
3	TBL	25	2	2.33
3	NYR	13	1	2.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown