Edmonton Oilers at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-11-12 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 2 Edmonton Oilers (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 54.8%

EDM: 45.2%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.39

EDM: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Stat	PHI	EDM
Season SV%	0.910	0.896
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	2.81

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Dan Vladar	31	29	2	93.5%	2.34	1	0.34
EDM	Stuart Skinner	21	20	1	95.2%	2.29	0	1.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • PHI at home vs EDM: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-03	EDM 2 - 5 PHI	PHI	EDM
2025-11-12	PHI 1 - 2 EDM	EDM	PHI
2025-02-22	PHI 6 - 3 EDM	PHI	EDM
2024-10-15	EDM 4 - 3 PHI	EDM	EDM
2024-01-02	EDM 5 - 2 PHI	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	11	0	0.52
1	EDM	16	0	0.73
2	PHI	9	0	0.57
2	EDM	15	1	0.95
3	PHI	13	0	1.01
3	EDM	8	0	0.46
4	PHI	1	0	0.19
4	EDM	2	0	0.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 2 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1