Buffalo Sabres at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2025-11-12 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 5 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

UTA: 59.5%

BUF: 40.5%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.42

BUF: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

BUF

Colten Ellis - 4-3-0 | 0.895 SV% | 3.25 GAA

Stat	UTA	BUF
Season SV%	0.895	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.68	3.25

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	19	17	2	89.5%	2.35	2	0.35
BUF	Colten Ellis	37	32	5	86.5%	3.90	3	-1.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • UTA at home vs BUF: 2-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-12	UTA 5 - 2 BUF	UTA	UTA
2025-11-04	BUF 1 - 2 UTA	UTA	BUF
2025-03-20	UTA 5 - 2 BUF	UTA	UTA
2024-12-07	BUF 2 - 5 UTA	UTA	UTA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	18	0	0.87
1	BUF	13	0	0.71
2	UTA	16	1	0.80
2	BUF	16	2	1.50
3	UTA	17	2	2.23
3	BUF	8	0	0.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown