Los Angeles Kings at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-11-13 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 4 Los Angeles Kings (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 45.9%

LAK: 54.1%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.36

LAK: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Dennis Hildeby - 3-5-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.90 GAA

LAK

Darcy Kuemper - 10-7-6 | 0.913 SV% | 2.27 GAA

Stat	TOR	LAK
Season SV%	0.912	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.90	2.27

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Dennis Hildeby	37	33	4	89.2%	4.39	5	0.39
LAK	Darcy Kuemper	15	12	3	80.0%	2.05	1	-0.95

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs LAK: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	LAK 7 - 6 TOR	LAK	LAK
2025-11-13	TOR 3 - 4 LAK	LAK	LAK
2025-03-29	LAK 1 - 3 TOR	TOR	LAK
2024-10-16	TOR 6 - 2 LAK	TOR	TOR
2024-01-02	LAK 0 - 3 TOR	TOR	LAK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	12	1	1.16
1	LAK	23	3	2.01
2	TOR	5	0	0.52
2	LAK	15	0	0.85
3	TOR	9	0	0.37
3	LAK	22	2	1.48
4	TOR	0	0	0.00
4	LAK	1	0	0.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 4 Los Angeles Kings

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1