Dallas Stars at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-11-13 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 0 - 7 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 53.9%

DAL: 46.1%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.91

DAL: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

Stat	MTL	DAL
Season SV%	0.889	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.01	2.44

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	19	12	7	63.2%	2.43	1	-4.57
DAL	Casey DeSmith	24	24	0	100.0%	2.80	1	2.80

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • MTL at home vs DAL: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-04	DAL 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	DAL
2025-11-13	MTL 0 - 7 DAL	DAL	MTL
2025-01-16	DAL 1 - 3 MTL	MTL	DAL
2025-01-11	MTL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-02-10	MTL 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	16	0	1.15
1	DAL	11	0	0.68
2	MTL	7	0	0.51
2	DAL	10	0	1.07
3	MTL	16	1	1.14
3	DAL	7	1	0.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown