Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-11-13 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 5 - 3 Boston Bruins

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 66.1%

BOS: 33.9%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.47

BOS: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Leevi Meriläinen - 5-7-0 | 0.872 SV% | 3.46 GAA

BOS

Joonas Korpisalo - 6-8-0 | 0.882 SV% | 3.60 GAA

Stat	OTT	BOS
Season SV%	0.872	0.882
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.46	3.60

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Leevi Meriläinen	21	18	3	85.7%	2.44	2	-0.56
BOS	Joonas Korpisalo	22	17	5	77.3%	2.37	2	-2.63

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • OTT at home vs BOS: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-21	BOS 2 - 6 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-13	OTT 5 - 3 BOS	OTT	OTT
2025-11-06	BOS 3 - 2 OTT	BOS	OTT
2025-10-27	OTT 7 - 2 BOS	OTT	OTT
2025-03-13	OTT 6 - 3 BOS	OTT	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	15	0	0.84
1	BOS	6	0	0.09
2	OTT	5	0	0.16
2	BOS	17	1	1.17
3	OTT	11	2	1.38
3	BOS	9	1	1.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown