Washington Capitals at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-11-13 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 6 - 3 Washington Capitals

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

FLA: 53.8%

WSH: 46.2%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.12

WSH: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

FLA

Daniil Tarasov - 4-6-2 | 0.899 SV% | 2.96 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Stat	FLA	WSH
Season SV%	0.899	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.96	2.39

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Daniil Tarasov	40	37	3	92.5%	2.80	0	-0.20
WSH	Logan Thompson	28	22	6	78.6%	3.96	2	-2.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • FLA at home vs WSH: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	WSH 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	WSH
2025-12-29	FLA 5 - 3 WSH	FLA	FLA
2025-11-13	FLA 6 - 3 WSH	FLA	FLA
2025-03-22	WSH 6 - 3 FLA	WSH	WSH
2025-02-04	WSH 6 - 3 FLA	WSH	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	12	0	0.83
1	WSH	22	0	0.93
2	FLA	16	1	1.47
2	WSH	19	0	0.76
3	FLA	16	1	1.66
3	WSH	21	0	1.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown