New York Islanders at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-11-13 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 4 New York Islanders (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 58.7%

NYI: 41.3%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.51

NYI: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • VGK at home vs NYI: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-09	NYI 5 - 4 VGK	NYI	NYI
2025-11-13	VGK 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	VGK
2025-02-04	NYI 2 - 1 VGK	NYI	VGK
2025-01-09	VGK 0 - 4 NYI	NYI	VGK
2024-01-23	NYI 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	14	2	1.18
1	NYI	11	0	0.58
2	VGK	15	1	1.91
2	NYI	15	0	1.09
3	VGK	15	2	1.05
3	NYI	13	0	0.84
4	VGK	5	0	0.54
4	NYI	3	1	0.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 4 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.5 - 2.8