New York Islanders at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2025-11-14 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 2 - 3 New York Islanders (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (67% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

UTA: 67.3%

NYI: 32.7%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.69

NYI: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

NYI

David Rittich - 10-5-2 | 0.909 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Stat	UTA	NYI
Season SV%	0.895	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.68	2.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	22	19	3	86.4%	3.83	4	0.83
NYI	David Rittich	30	28	2	93.3%	3.93	2	1.93

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • UTA at home vs NYI: 0-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-01	NYI 2 - 7 UTA	UTA	UTA
2025-11-14	UTA 2 - 3 NYI	NYI	UTA
2025-01-11	UTA 1 - 2 NYI	NYI	UTA
2024-10-10	NYI 4 - 5 UTA	UTA	UTA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	22	2	1.98
1	NYI	8	1	0.75
2	UTA	13	0	1.14
2	NYI	15	1	1.09
3	UTA	13	0	0.81
3	NYI	12	2	1.80
4	UTA	0	0	0.00
4	NYI	3	0	0.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 67.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Utah Hockey Club 2 - 3 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.7 - 3.0