Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-11-15 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 1 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 50.6%

TBL: 49.4%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.01

TBL: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • FLA at home vs TBL: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	TBL 6 - 1 FLA	TBL	TBL
2025-12-27	FLA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-15	TBL 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	TBL
2025-11-15	FLA 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	FLA
2025-04-30	TBL 3 - 6 FLA	FLA	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	9	0	0.37
1	TBL	18	1	1.34
2	FLA	15	0	0.66
2	TBL	11	0	0.74
3	FLA	23	0	1.00
3	TBL	5	1	1.36

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 1 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1