Boston Bruins at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2025-11-15 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 2 - 3 Boston Bruins
🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 60.1%
BOS: 39.9%
Expected Goals
MTL: 3.25
BOS: 2.80
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 57%
Over 6.5: 40%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
BOS
Jeremy Swayman - 22-12-3 | 0.903 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | MTL | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.903 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.903 | 0.889 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.866 |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.84 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • MTL at home vs BOS: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | BOS 4 - 3 MTL | BOS | BOS |
| 2025-12-23 | BOS 2 - 6 MTL | MTL | BOS |
| 2025-11-15 | MTL 2 - 3 BOS | BOS | MTL |
| 2025-04-03 | MTL 4 - 1 BOS | MTL | MTL |
| 2024-12-01 | BOS 6 - 3 MTL | BOS | BOS |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12:12 | MTL | Goal |
| 1 | 08:38 | BOS | Goal |
| 2 | 18:44 | BOS | Goal |
| 2 | 16:51 | BOS | Goal |
| 2 | 02:00 | BOS | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 60.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 2 - 3 Boston Bruins
Expected: 3.2 - 2.8