Boston Bruins at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-11-15 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 3 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 61.7%

BOS: 38.3%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.46

BOS: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 36%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Stat	MTL	BOS
Season SV%	0.863	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.52	2.84

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	23	20	3	87.0%	4.18	6	1.18
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	28	26	2	92.9%	3.94	1	1.94

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 82% • MTL at home vs BOS: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-17	MTL 3 - 2 BOS	MTL	MTL
2026-01-24	BOS 4 - 3 MTL	BOS	BOS
2025-12-23	BOS 2 - 6 MTL	MTL	BOS
2025-11-15	MTL 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	MTL
2025-04-03	MTL 4 - 1 BOS	MTL	MTL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	11	0	0.85
1	BOS	17	2	1.66
2	MTL	19	0	1.68
2	BOS	10	2	0.74
3	MTL	22	1	1.41
3	BOS	13	2	1.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown