Los Angeles Kings at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-11-15 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 0 - 1 Los Angeles Kings

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 55.3%

LAK: 44.7%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.48

LAK: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 37%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

LAK

Anton Forsberg - 6-6-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.70 GAA

Stat	OTT	LAK
Season SV%	0.881	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.95	2.70

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	18	17	1	94.4%	2.14	2	1.14
LAK	Anton Forsberg	17	17	0	100.0%	2.16	0	2.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • OTT at home vs LAK: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-24	LAK 2 - 1 OTT	LAK	LAK
2025-11-15	OTT 0 - 1 LAK	LAK	OTT
2024-11-30	LAK 5 - 2 OTT	LAK	LAK
2024-10-14	OTT 8 - 7 LAK	OTT	OTT
2024-03-07	LAK 4 - 3 OTT	LAK	LAK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	8	0	0.47
1	LAK	6	0	0.23
2	OTT	9	0	0.64
2	LAK	5	0	0.18
3	OTT	19	0	1.05
3	LAK	17	2	1.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown