Buffalo Sabres at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-11-15 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 5 Buffalo Sabres (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 55.3%

BUF: 44.7%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.53

BUF: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

BUF

Colten Ellis - 4-3-0 | 0.895 SV% | 3.25 GAA

Stat	DET	BUF
Season SV%	0.893	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.97	3.25

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	John Gibson	27	22	5	81.5%	3.22	2	-1.78
BUF	Colten Ellis	28	24	4	85.7%	3.22	2	-0.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • DET at home vs BUF: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-27	BUF 2 - 5 DET	DET	BUF
2025-11-15	DET 4 - 5 BUF	BUF	DET
2025-10-22	BUF 4 - 2 DET	BUF	BUF
2025-03-12	DET 7 - 3 BUF	DET	BUF
2024-12-09	BUF 5 - 6 DET	DET	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	11	2	0.76
1	BUF	10	1	1.11
2	DET	19	0	1.66
2	BUF	10	0	0.69
3	DET	12	0	0.79
3	BUF	16	1	1.25
4	DET	0	0	0.00
4	BUF	1	0	0.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.5 - 3.2