New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-11-15 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 New Jersey Devils (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 53.6%

NJD: 46.4%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.24

NJD: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • WSH at home vs NJD: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	NJD 7 - 3 WSH	NJD	NJD
2026-03-20	WSH 2 - 1 NJD	WSH	NJD
2025-12-27	NJD 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	NJD
2025-11-15	WSH 2 - 3 NJD	NJD	WSH
2024-11-30	NJD 5 - 6 WSH	WSH	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	10	0	0.37
1	NJD	18	2	1.18
2	WSH	16	1	0.91
2	NJD	14	1	0.67
3	WSH	18	2	1.63
3	NJD	10	0	0.55
4	WSH	2	0	0.22
4	NJD	6	1	0.52
5	WSH	4	1	1.01
5	NJD	4	2	2.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2