Edmonton Oilers at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2025-11-15 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 3 - 4 Edmonton Oilers (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (66% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CAR: 66.3%

EDM: 33.7%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.93

EDM: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Stat	CAR	EDM
Season SV%	0.865	0.896
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.38	2.81

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	23	19	4	82.6%	3.52	5	-0.48
EDM	Stuart Skinner	36	33	3	91.7%	3.08	0	0.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CAR at home vs EDM: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-06	EDM 3 - 6 CAR	CAR	EDM
2025-11-15	CAR 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	CAR
2025-03-01	CAR 1 - 3 EDM	EDM	CAR
2024-10-22	EDM 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2023-12-06	EDM 6 - 1 CAR	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	15	0	0.76
1	EDM	17	1	1.33
2	CAR	23	0	1.20
2	EDM	9	1	0.93
3	CAR	16	0	1.11
3	EDM	11	3	1.17
4	CAR	0	0	0.00
4	EDM	1	0	0.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 66.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 3 - 4 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.9 - 2.9