Toronto Maple Leafs at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2025-11-15 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 3 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

CHI: 47.6%

TOR: 52.4%

Expected Goals

CHI: 3.36

TOR: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CHI at home vs TOR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-16	TOR 3 - 2 CHI	TOR	TOR
2025-11-15	CHI 3 - 2 TOR	CHI	TOR
2025-02-23	CHI 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-12-02	TOR 4 - 1 CHI	TOR	TOR
2023-11-24	CHI 4 - 3 TOR	CHI	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	15	0	0.62
1	TOR	17	0	1.02
2	CHI	19	1	1.35
2	TOR	13	2	1.17
3	CHI	19	1	1.77
3	TOR	17	0	0.83

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 3 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0