Toronto Maple Leafs at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2025-11-15 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 3 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CHI: 47.4%

TOR: 52.6%

Expected Goals

CHI: 3.15

TOR: 2.71

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Stat	CHI	TOR
Season SV%	0.909	0.914
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.63	2.74

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Spencer Knight	33	31	2	93.9%	3.01	2	1.01
TOR	Joseph Woll	32	29	3	90.6%	3.74	2	0.74

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CHI at home vs TOR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-16	TOR 3 - 2 CHI	TOR	TOR
2025-11-15	CHI 3 - 2 TOR	CHI	TOR
2025-02-23	CHI 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-12-02	TOR 4 - 1 CHI	TOR	TOR
2023-11-24	CHI 4 - 3 TOR	CHI	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	15	0	0.62
1	TOR	17	0	1.02
2	CHI	19	1	1.35
2	TOR	13	2	1.17
3	CHI	19	1	1.77
3	TOR	17	0	0.83

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown