Vegas Golden Knights at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions
2025-11-15 • Enterprise Center
St. Louis Blues 1 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights
🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
STL: 54.7%
VGK: 45.3%
Expected Goals
STL: 2.88
VGK: 3.14
Total Goals
Median: 5.6
Over 5.5: 51%
Over 6.5: 39%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
STL
Jordan Binnington - 8-17-6 | 0.864 SV% | 3.65 GAA
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-6-6 | 0.895 SV% | 2.53 GAA
| Stat | STL | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.869 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.826 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.875 | 0.929 |
| GAA | 3.56 | 2.50 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • STL at home vs VGK: 1-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | VGK 4 - 2 STL | VGK | VGK |
| 2026-01-02 | STL 4 - 3 VGK | STL | STL |
| 2025-11-15 | STL 1 - 4 VGK | VGK | STL |
| 2025-01-23 | STL 2 - 4 VGK | VGK | STL |
| 2025-01-20 | VGK 4 - 5 STL | STL | VGK |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14:58 | VGK | Goal |
| 1 | 12:52 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 00:36 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 15:57 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 11:20 | VGK | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
St. Louis Blues 1 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 2.9 - 3.1