Philadelphia Flyers at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-11-15 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 5 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

DAL: 70.4%

PHI: 29.6%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.81

PHI: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 39%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • DAL at home vs PHI: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-29	PHI 2 - 1 DAL	PHI	DAL
2025-11-15	DAL 5 - 1 PHI	DAL	DAL
2025-03-22	DAL 3 - 2 PHI	DAL	DAL
2025-01-09	PHI 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-01-18	PHI 5 - 1 DAL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	20	1	1.46
1	PHI	6	1	0.43
2	DAL	10	0	0.77
2	PHI	15	0	0.75
3	DAL	17	2	1.37
3	PHI	10	0	0.53

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 5 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.8 - 3.0