Philadelphia Flyers at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-11-15 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 5 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 49.9%

PHI: 50.1%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.94

PHI: 2.62

Total Goals

Median: 5.4

Over 5.5: 49%

Over 6.5: 34%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	DAL	PHI
Season SV%	0.907	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.57	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	21	20	1	95.2%	1.70	1	0.70
PHI	Dan Vladar	28	23	5	82.1%	3.60	3	-1.40

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DAL at home vs PHI: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-29	PHI 2 - 1 DAL	PHI	DAL
2025-11-15	DAL 5 - 1 PHI	DAL	PHI
2025-03-22	DAL 3 - 2 PHI	DAL	DAL
2025-01-09	PHI 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	PHI
2024-01-18	PHI 5 - 1 DAL	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	20	1	1.46
1	PHI	6	1	0.43
2	DAL	10	0	0.77
2	PHI	15	0	0.75
3	DAL	17	2	1.37
3	PHI	10	0	0.53

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown