Winnipeg Jets at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions
2025-11-15 • Scotiabank Saddledome
Calgary Flames 3 - 4 Winnipeg Jets (SO)
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
CGY: 59.1%
WPG: 40.9%
Expected Goals
CGY: 3.43
WPG: 3.02
Total Goals
Median: 6.5
Over 5.5: 64%
Over 6.5: 50%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 16-21-3 | 0.895 SV% | 3.00 GAA
WPG
Connor Hellebuyck - 13-16-7 | 0.900 SV% | 2.79 GAA
| Stat | CGY | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.901 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.877 | 0.879 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.889 | 0.940 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.51 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • CGY at home vs WPG: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | CGY 3 - 4 WPG | WPG | CGY |
| 2025-10-24 | WPG 5 - 3 CGY | WPG | WPG |
| 2025-10-20 | CGY 1 - 2 WPG | WPG | CGY |
| 2025-01-26 | WPG 5 - 2 CGY | WPG | WPG |
| 2025-01-18 | WPG 1 - 3 CGY | CGY | WPG |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 13:29 | CGY | Goal |
| 2 | 08:25 | WPG | Goal |
| 2 | 07:52 | CGY | Goal |
| 2 | 07:19 | WPG | Goal |
| 3 | 18:46 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 01:20 | WPG | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | CGY | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
Calgary Flames 3 - 4 Winnipeg Jets
Expected: 3.4 - 3.0