Winnipeg Jets at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-11-15 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 4 Winnipeg Jets (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 59.5%

WPG: 40.5%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.05

WPG: 3.35

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • CGY at home vs WPG: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-15	CGY 3 - 4 WPG	WPG	CGY
2025-10-24	WPG 5 - 3 CGY	WPG	WPG
2025-10-20	CGY 1 - 2 WPG	WPG	CGY
2025-01-26	WPG 5 - 2 CGY	WPG	WPG
2025-01-18	WPG 1 - 3 CGY	CGY	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	14	0	0.58
1	WPG	16	1	1.12
2	CGY	18	0	0.97
2	WPG	19	0	0.84
3	CGY	14	1	1.15
3	WPG	8	1	0.91
4	CGY	3	0	0.26
4	WPG	2	0	0.11
5	CGY	3	0	0.21
5	WPG	3	1	1.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3