Vancouver Canucks at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-11-16 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 6 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 50.2%

VAN: 49.8%

Expected Goals

TBL: 2.39

VAN: 3.38

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TBL at home vs VAN: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	VAN 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-16	TBL 2 - 6 VAN	VAN	TBL
2024-12-08	VAN 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-10-15	TBL 4 - 1 VAN	TBL	VAN
2023-12-12	VAN 4 - 1 TBL	VAN	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	21	3	1.77
1	VAN	3	0	0.10
2	TBL	9	1	0.88
2	VAN	8	1	0.85
3	TBL	19	2	1.28
3	VAN	16	1	1.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 6 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 2.4 - 3.4