Vancouver Canucks at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-11-16 • Benchmark International Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 6 Vancouver Canucks
🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 60.3%
VAN: 39.7%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.25
VAN: 3.16
Total Goals
Median: 6.2
Over 5.5: 64%
Over 6.5: 47%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
VAN
Kevin Lankinen - 7-19-4 | 0.876 SV% | 3.67 GAA
| Stat | TBL | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.885 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.793 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.933 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 3.41 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TBL at home vs VAN: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-16 | TBL 2 - 6 VAN | VAN | TBL |
| 2024-12-08 | VAN 2 - 4 TBL | TBL | VAN |
| 2024-10-15 | TBL 4 - 1 VAN | TBL | TBL |
| 2023-12-12 | VAN 4 - 1 TBL | VAN | VAN |
| 2023-10-19 | TBL 4 - 3 VAN | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19:25 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 09:26 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 04:35 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 16:57 | VAN | Goal |
| 3 | 13:52 | VAN | Goal |
| 3 | 05:51 | VAN | Goal |
| 3 | 04:54 | VAN | Goal |
| 3 | 04:11 | TBL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 60.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 6 Vancouver Canucks
Expected: 3.3 - 3.2