Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2025-11-16 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (65% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MIN: 34.9%

VGK: 65.1%

Expected Goals

MIN: 2.35

VGK: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

VGK

Carl Lindbom - 0-3-2 | 0.874 SV% | 3.18 GAA

Stat	MIN	VGK
Season SV%	0.912	0.874
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.47	3.18

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	25	23	2	92.0%	1.85	0	-0.15
VGK	Carl Lindbom	28	25	3	89.3%	1.69	0	-1.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • MIN at home vs VGK: 2-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-06	VGK 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-12-29	VGK 2 - 5 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-11-16	MIN 3 - 2 VGK	MIN	VGK
2025-05-01	MIN 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-29	VGK 3 - 2 MIN	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	MIN	15	0.68
1	VGK	11	0.62
2	MIN	7	0.36
2	VGK	12	0.71
3	MIN	9	0.47
3	VGK	15	0.52
4	MIN	3	0.19
4	VGK	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 65.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.4 - 3.2