New York Islanders at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-11-16 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 1 New York Islanders

Win Probability

COL: 79.0%

NYI: 21.0%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.85

NYI: 2.63

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • COL at home vs NYI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-04	NYI 6 - 3 COL	NYI	NYI
2025-11-16	COL 4 - 1 NYI	COL	COL
2025-01-28	NYI 5 - 2 COL	NYI	COL
2024-10-14	COL 2 - 6 NYI	NYI	COL
2024-01-02	COL 5 - 4 NYI	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	13	1	0.64
1	NYI	14	0	0.61
2	COL	15	1	1.09
2	NYI	15	1	1.13
3	COL	13	3	1.82
3	NYI	16	1	1.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 79.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 1 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.8 - 2.6