Carolina Hurricanes at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-11-17 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 1 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 35.5%

CAR: 64.5%

Expected Goals

BOS: 1.95

CAR: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	BOS	CAR
Season SV%	0.903	0.899
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.84	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	32	29	3	90.6%	3.86	1	0.86
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	30	29	1	96.7%	1.76	1	0.76

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BOS at home vs CAR: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	CAR 6 - 5 BOS	CAR	CAR
2025-11-17	BOS 1 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-11-01	BOS 2 - 1 CAR	BOS	CAR
2025-04-05	BOS 5 - 1 CAR	BOS	CAR
2025-03-06	CAR 3 - 2 BOS	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	14	0	0.62
1	CAR	18	0	1.33
2	BOS	8	0	0.32
2	CAR	25	1	1.60
3	BOS	16	1	0.82
3	CAR	15	0	0.93

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 4.8

Score Breakdown