Edmonton Oilers at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-11-17 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 1 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 49.0%

EDM: 51.0%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.32

EDM: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Colten Ellis - 4-3-0 | 0.895 SV% | 3.25 GAA

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Stat	BUF	EDM
Season SV%	0.895	0.896
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.25	2.81

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Colten Ellis	33	32	1	97.0%	2.20	0	1.20
EDM	Stuart Skinner	28	23	5	82.1%	3.97	1	-1.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • BUF at home vs EDM: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-09	EDM 3 - 4 BUF	BUF	EDM
2025-11-17	BUF 5 - 1 EDM	BUF	EDM
2025-03-10	BUF 3 - 2 EDM	BUF	EDM
2025-01-25	EDM 3 - 2 BUF	EDM	EDM
2024-03-21	EDM 8 - 3 BUF	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	11	0	1.04
1	EDM	14	0	0.80
2	BUF	18	0	1.17
2	EDM	14	0	0.68
3	BUF	18	1	1.76
3	EDM	18	0	0.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown