Edmonton Oilers at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-11-17 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 1 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 49.0%

EDM: 51.0%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.97

EDM: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • BUF at home vs EDM: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-09	EDM 3 - 4 BUF	BUF	EDM
2025-11-17	BUF 5 - 1 EDM	BUF	EDM
2025-03-10	BUF 3 - 2 EDM	BUF	EDM
2025-01-25	EDM 3 - 2 BUF	EDM	EDM
2024-03-21	EDM 8 - 3 BUF	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	11	0	1.04
1	EDM	14	0	0.80
2	BUF	18	0	1.17
2	EDM	14	0	0.68
3	BUF	18	1	1.76
3	EDM	18	0	0.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 1 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0