Montreal Canadiens at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2025-11-17 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 4 - 3 Montreal Canadiens (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CBJ: 51.4%

MTL: 48.6%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.44

MTL: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CBJ

Jet Greaves - 11-10-5 | 0.909 SV% | 2.62 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Stat	CBJ	MTL
Season SV%	0.909	0.889
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.62	3.01

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Jet Greaves	35	31	4	88.6%	4.43	5	0.43
MTL	Jakub Dobes	25	20	5	80.0%	3.93	4	-1.07

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • CBJ at home vs MTL: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	MTL 2 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ
2026-03-26	MTL 2 - 1 CBJ	MTL	CBJ
2025-11-17	CBJ 4 - 3 MTL	CBJ	CBJ
2024-12-23	CBJ 5 - 4 MTL	CBJ	MTL
2024-11-27	CBJ 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	CBJ

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	11	0	0.56
1	MTL	12	0	0.45
2	CBJ	13	1	1.32
2	MTL	13	0	0.65
3	CBJ	7	1	0.35
3	MTL	14	3	1.72
4	CBJ	0	0	0.00
4	MTL	6	1	0.56
5	CBJ	2	2	1.72
5	MTL	3	1	1.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 4 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1