Utah Hockey Club at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2025-11-17 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 3 - 2 Utah Hockey Club (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

ANA: 45.8%

UTA: 54.2%

Expected Goals

ANA: 3.31

UTA: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

Stat	ANA	UTA
Season SV%	0.888	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.15	2.68

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Lukas Dostal	18	16	2	88.9%	1.62	0	-0.38
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	26	23	3	88.5%	2.66	1	-0.34

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • ANA at home vs UTA: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-20	UTA 1 - 4 ANA	ANA	UTA
2025-12-03	ANA 0 - 7 UTA	UTA	UTA
2025-11-17	ANA 3 - 2 UTA	ANA	UTA
2025-03-12	UTA 3 - 2 ANA	UTA	UTA
2024-12-22	UTA 4 - 5 ANA	ANA	UTA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	6	0	0.61
1	UTA	10	0	0.51
2	ANA	19	0	0.75
2	UTA	11	0	0.47
3	ANA	17	1	1.12
3	UTA	10	0	0.64
4	ANA	1	0	0.18
4	UTA	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 3 - 2 Utah Hockey Club

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1