St. Louis Blues at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-11-18 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 St. Louis Blues (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 45.7%

STL: 54.3%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.23

STL: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 39%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TOR at home vs STL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	STL 5 - 1 TOR	STL	STL
2025-11-18	TOR 3 - 2 STL	TOR	STL
2024-11-02	STL 4 - 2 TOR	STL	TOR
2024-10-24	TOR 1 - 5 STL	STL	TOR
2024-02-19	STL 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	17	0	0.86
1	STL	11	1	1.33
2	TOR	15	0	0.58
2	STL	19	1	1.36
3	TOR	7	0	0.22
3	STL	17	0	0.70
4	TOR	2	0	0.09
4	STL	1	0	0.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8