St. Louis Blues at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-11-18 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 St. Louis Blues (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 49.6%

STL: 50.4%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.24

STL: 2.75

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Stat	TOR	STL
Season SV%	0.914	0.869
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.74	3.56

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	30	28	2	93.3%	3.46	2	1.46
STL	Jordan Binnington	29	26	3	89.7%	1.76	0	-1.24

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TOR at home vs STL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	STL 5 - 1 TOR	STL	STL
2025-11-18	TOR 3 - 2 STL	TOR	STL
2024-11-02	STL 4 - 2 TOR	STL	TOR
2024-10-24	TOR 1 - 5 STL	STL	TOR
2024-02-19	STL 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	17	0	0.86
1	STL	11	1	1.33
2	TOR	15	0	0.58
2	STL	19	1	1.36
3	TOR	7	0	0.22
3	STL	17	0	0.70
4	TOR	2	0	0.09
4	STL	1	0	0.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8