Seattle Kraken at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-11-18 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 2 Seattle Kraken

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 49.9%

SEA: 50.1%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.06

SEA: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

SEA

Joey Daccord - 10-9-5 | 0.903 SV% | 2.77 GAA

Stat	DET	SEA
Season SV%	0.888	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.99	2.77

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Cam Talbot	22	20	2	90.9%	2.03	1	0.03
SEA	Joey Daccord	27	23	4	85.2%	3.68	4	-0.32

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DET at home vs SEA: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-06	SEA 3 - 4 DET	DET	DET
2025-11-18	DET 4 - 2 SEA	DET	SEA
2025-02-04	SEA 4 - 5 DET	DET	DET
2025-01-12	DET 6 - 2 SEA	DET	DET
2024-02-19	SEA 3 - 4 DET	DET	SEA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	17	0	0.86
1	SEA	15	1	1.22
2	DET	15	2	1.42
2	SEA	8	0	0.40
3	DET	11	2	1.41
3	SEA	8	0	0.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown