New Jersey Devils at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-11-18 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 1 New Jersey Devils

Win Probability

TBL: 60.6%

NJD: 39.4%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.51

NJD: 2.74

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • TBL at home vs NJD: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-11	NJD 4 - 8 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-18	TBL 5 - 1 NJD	TBL	TBL
2025-10-11	TBL 3 - 5 NJD	NJD	NJD
2025-01-11	NJD 3 - 2 TBL	NJD	NJD
2024-11-16	TBL 4 - 0 NJD	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	9	0	0.81
1	NJD	17	1	1.08
2	TBL	18	2	1.86
2	NJD	16	1	1.66
3	TBL	16	0	0.93
3	NJD	14	0	0.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 1 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.5 - 2.7