Calgary Flames at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2025-11-18 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 5 - 2 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CHI: 46.2%

CGY: 53.8%

Expected Goals

CHI: 3.06

CGY: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CHI

Arvid Soderblom - 4-7-1 | 0.873 SV% | 4.02 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	CHI	CGY
Season SV%	0.873	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	4.02	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Arvid Soderblom	21	19	2	90.5%	1.77	1	-0.23
CGY	Dustin Wolf	23	18	5	78.3%	2.69	1	-2.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • CHI at home vs CGY: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-15	CHI 1 - 3 CGY	CGY	CGY
2025-11-18	CHI 5 - 2 CGY	CHI	CGY
2025-11-07	CGY 0 - 4 CHI	CHI	CGY
2025-01-13	CHI 2 - 5 CGY	CGY	CGY
2024-12-21	CGY 6 - 4 CHI	CGY	CGY

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	13	0	0.69
1	CGY	10	1	0.55
2	CHI	12	0	0.62
2	CGY	11	0	0.54
3	CHI	9	1	1.39
3	CGY	14	0	0.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown