New York Rangers at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-11-18 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 2 New York Rangers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 61.1%

NYR: 38.9%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.32

NYR: 2.43

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Akira Schmid - 11-4-4 | 0.895 SV% | 2.50 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	VGK	NYR
Season SV%	0.895	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.50	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Akira Schmid	19	17	2	89.5%	2.24	2	0.24
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	26	23	3	88.5%	2.85	1	-0.15

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VGK at home vs NYR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-07	NYR 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-11-18	VGK 3 - 2 NYR	VGK	VGK
2025-02-02	NYR 4 - 2 VGK	NYR	VGK
2025-01-11	VGK 1 - 2 NYR	NYR	VGK
2024-01-26	NYR 2 - 5 VGK	VGK	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	13	0	0.86
1	NYR	13	0	0.60
2	VGK	10	0	0.67
2	NYR	11	2	0.88
3	VGK	17	1	1.32
3	NYR	11	0	0.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown