Calgary Flames at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-11-19 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 6 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 52.3%

CGY: 47.7%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.90

CGY: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Colten Ellis - 4-3-0 | 0.895 SV% | 3.25 GAA

CGY

Devin Cooley - 4-4-2 | 0.914 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	BUF	CGY
Season SV%	0.895	0.914
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.25	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Colten Ellis	35	29	6	82.9%	2.74	2	-3.26
CGY	Devin Cooley	30	28	2	93.3%	1.74	0	-0.26

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • BUF at home vs CGY: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-08	CGY 7 - 4 BUF	CGY	CGY
2025-11-19	BUF 2 - 6 CGY	CGY	BUF
2025-01-23	CGY 5 - 2 BUF	CGY	CGY
2024-11-09	BUF 3 - 2 CGY	BUF	BUF
2024-03-24	CGY 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	CGY

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	8	0	0.38
1	CGY	17	0	1.03
2	BUF	17	0	0.85
2	CGY	11	0	0.43
3	BUF	18	0	0.51
3	CGY	20	2	1.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown