Washington Capitals at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-11-20 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 8 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 54.2%

WSH: 45.8%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.02

WSH: 3.61

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • MTL at home vs WSH: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	MTL 6 - 2 WSH	MTL	MTL
2026-01-13	WSH 3 - 2 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-11-20	MTL 4 - 8 WSH	WSH	MTL
2025-04-30	WSH 4 - 1 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-04-27	MTL 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	15	1	1.83
1	WSH	10	0	0.48
2	MTL	11	1	0.99
2	WSH	21	3	1.47
3	MTL	14	0	1.09
3	WSH	23	2	1.98

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 8 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.0 - 3.6