New York Islanders at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-11-20 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 0 - 5 New York Islanders

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 45.2%

NYI: 54.8%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.54

NYI: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Stat	DET	NYI
Season SV%	0.893	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.97	2.55

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	John Gibson	26	21	5	80.8%	3.10	3	-1.90
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	29	29	0	100.0%	3.11	4	3.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • DET at home vs NYI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-16	DET 3 - 2 NYI	DET	DET
2025-11-20	DET 0 - 5 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-10-23	NYI 7 - 2 DET	NYI	NYI
2024-11-25	NYI 2 - 4 DET	DET	NYI
2024-11-21	DET 2 - 1 NYI	DET	NYI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	8	0	0.65
1	NYI	15	1	1.01
2	DET	21	2	1.15
2	NYI	15	2	1.39
3	DET	13	2	1.30
3	NYI	8	0	0.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown