Edmonton Oilers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-11-20 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 1 Edmonton Oilers (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 65.3%

EDM: 34.7%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.25

EDM: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

EDM

Calvin Pickard - 4-5-2 | 0.874 SV% | 3.69 GAA

Stat	TBL	EDM
Season SV%	0.913	0.874
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	3.69

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	25	24	1	96.0%	2.23	0	1.23
EDM	Calvin Pickard	35	33	2	94.3%	2.92	2	0.92

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • TBL at home vs EDM: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-21	EDM 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	EDM
2025-11-20	TBL 2 - 1 EDM	TBL	TBL
2025-02-25	TBL 4 - 1 EDM	TBL	EDM
2024-12-10	EDM 2 - 1 TBL	EDM	EDM
2023-12-14	EDM 4 - 7 TBL	TBL	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	9	1	0.55
1	EDM	15	0	0.83
2	TBL	12	1	0.98
2	EDM	13	0	0.82
3	TBL	22	0	1.19
3	EDM	7	0	0.37
4	TBL	2	0	0.20
4	EDM	3	0	0.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 1 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9