St. Louis Blues at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-11-20 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 2 St. Louis Blues (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 64.5%

STL: 35.5%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.39

STL: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

Stat	PHI	STL
Season SV%	0.910	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	2.87

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Dan Vladar	29	27	2	93.1%	2.50	2	0.50
STL	Joel Hofer	28	25	3	89.3%	2.97	2	-0.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PHI at home vs STL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-20	PHI 3 - 2 STL	PHI	PHI
2025-11-14	STL 5 - 6 PHI	PHI	STL
2024-11-30	STL 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	STL
2024-10-31	PHI 2 - 1 STL	PHI	PHI
2024-03-04	PHI 1 - 2 STL	STL	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	19	1	1.21
1	STL	9	0	0.62
2	PHI	13	0	0.64
2	STL	16	1	1.07
3	PHI	11	1	0.85
3	STL	7	1	0.53
4	PHI	3	0	0.27
4	STL	3	0	0.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 2 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9