Vegas Golden Knights at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions
2025-11-20 • Delta Center
Utah Hockey Club 1 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
UTA: 58.7%
VGK: 41.3%
Expected Goals
UTA: 3.22
VGK: 3.03
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 60%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
UTA
Karel Vejmelka - 27-15-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.61 GAA
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-6-6 | 0.895 SV% | 2.53 GAA
| Stat | UTA | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.895 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.897 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.925 | 0.962 |
| GAA | 2.68 | 2.50 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • UTA at home vs VGK: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-24 | UTA 5 - 1 VGK | UTA | UTA |
| 2025-11-20 | UTA 1 - 4 VGK | VGK | UTA |
| 2024-11-30 | VGK 0 - 6 UTA | UTA | VGK |
| 2024-11-15 | UTA 2 - 4 VGK | VGK | UTA |
| 2024-11-02 | VGK 4 - 3 UTA | VGK | VGK |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 16:51 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 06:38 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 03:28 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 03:09 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 00:45 | VGK | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 58.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Utah Hockey Club 1 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 3.2 - 3.0