Dallas Stars at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2025-11-20 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 4 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VAN: 51.8%

DAL: 48.2%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.22

DAL: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Stat	VAN	DAL
Season SV%	0.885	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.41	2.57

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	24	20	4	83.3%	2.65	3	-1.35
DAL	Jake Oettinger	36	34	2	94.4%	4.51	6	2.51

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • VAN at home vs DAL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-02	VAN 1 - 6 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-11-20	VAN 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	VAN
2025-10-16	DAL 3 - 5 VAN	VAN	DAL
2025-04-08	DAL 5 - 6 VAN	VAN	DAL
2025-03-09	VAN 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	VAN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	17	1	1.15
1	DAL	11	0	0.69
2	VAN	22	3	1.77
2	DAL	7	1	0.64
3	VAN	17	2	1.59
3	DAL	15	2	1.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown