Ottawa Senators at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2025-11-20 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 2 - 3 Ottawa Senators

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

ANA: 33.7%

OTT: 66.3%

Expected Goals

ANA: 2.52

OTT: 3.46

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

ANA

Petr Mrazek - 3-4-0 | 0.865 SV% | 3.78 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Stat	ANA	OTT
Season SV%	0.865	0.881
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.78	2.95

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Petr Mrazek	25	22	3	88.0%	3.81	2	0.81
OTT	Linus Ullmark	25	23	2	92.0%	2.32	2	0.32

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • ANA at home vs OTT: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	OTT 2 - 0 ANA	OTT	OTT
2025-11-20	ANA 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-12-11	OTT 5 - 1 ANA	OTT	OTT
2024-12-01	ANA 4 - 3 OTT	ANA	OTT
2024-03-06	ANA 2 - 1 OTT	ANA	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	10	0	0.35
1	OTT	11	0	0.97
2	ANA	16	2	1.20
2	OTT	18	1	1.47
3	ANA	17	0	0.77
3	OTT	11	1	1.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown