Chicago Blackhawks at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-11-21 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 9 - 3 Chicago Blackhawks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 68.5%

CHI: 31.5%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.55

CHI: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

CHI

Arvid Soderblom - 4-7-1 | 0.873 SV% | 4.02 GAA

Stat	BUF	CHI
Season SV%	0.903	0.873
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.46	4.02

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	23	20	3	87.0%	1.70	1	-1.30
CHI	Arvid Soderblom	31	22	9	71.0%	3.08	1	-5.92

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • BUF at home vs CHI: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	CHI 1 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-11-21	BUF 9 - 3 CHI	BUF	BUF
2024-12-27	BUF 6 - 2 CHI	BUF	BUF
2024-10-19	CHI 2 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2024-01-18	BUF 3 - 0 CHI	BUF	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	19	0	1.42
1	CHI	8	1	0.60
2	BUF	11	0	0.87
2	CHI	9	0	0.54
3	BUF	9	1	0.79
3	CHI	17	0	0.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown