Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-11-22 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 60.3%

TOR: 39.7%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.66

TOR: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Stat	MTL	TOR
Season SV%	0.889	0.914
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.01	2.74

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	26	24	2	92.3%	1.50	0	-0.50
TOR	Joseph Woll	29	24	5	82.8%	3.72	2	-1.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • MTL at home vs TOR: 7-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-29	TOR 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2026-03-10	MTL 3 - 1 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-12-06	TOR 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-11-22	MTL 5 - 2 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-10-08	TOR 5 - 2 MTL	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	14	0	0.87
1	TOR	12	0	0.51
2	MTL	23	1	1.87
2	TOR	11	0	0.33
3	MTL	8	1	0.98
3	TOR	15	0	0.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown