Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-11-22 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

MTL: 66.2%

TOR: 33.8%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.67

TOR: 2.61

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • MTL at home vs TOR: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	MTL 3 - 1 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-12-06	TOR 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-11-22	MTL 5 - 2 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-10-08	TOR 5 - 2 MTL	TOR	MTL
2025-04-12	TOR 1 - 0 MTL	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	14	0	0.87
1	TOR	12	0	0.51
2	MTL	23	1	1.87
2	TOR	11	0	0.33
3	MTL	8	1	0.98
3	TOR	15	0	0.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.7 - 2.6