Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2025-11-22 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 62.0%
TOR: 38.0%
Expected Goals
MTL: 2.95
TOR: 2.72
Total Goals
Median: 4.7
Over 5.5: 37%
Over 6.5: 25%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
| Stat | MTL | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.863 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.940 | 0.895 |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • MTL at home vs TOR: 3-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | MTL 3 - 1 TOR | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-12-06 | TOR 1 - 2 MTL | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-11-22 | MTL 5 - 2 TOR | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-10-08 | TOR 5 - 2 MTL | TOR | MTL |
| 2025-04-12 | TOR 1 - 0 MTL | TOR | TOR |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 62.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 5.7
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 2.9 - 2.7
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