Seattle Kraken at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-11-22 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 Seattle Kraken (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 64.0%

SEA: 36.0%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.79

SEA: 2.20

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Sergei Murashov - 1-1-0 | 0.932 SV% | 1.53 GAA

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

Stat	PIT	SEA
Season SV%	0.932	0.920
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	1.53	2.32

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Sergei Murashov	21	18	3	85.7%	1.95	0	-1.05
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	32	30	2	93.8%	3.67	1	1.67

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PIT at home vs SEA: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-19	SEA 3 - 6 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-11-22	PIT 2 - 3 SEA	SEA	PIT
2025-01-25	SEA 4 - 1 PIT	SEA	SEA
2025-01-14	PIT 2 - 4 SEA	SEA	PIT
2024-02-29	SEA 2 - 0 PIT	SEA	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	13	0	1.10
1	SEA	5	0	0.26
2	PIT	20	1	1.09
2	SEA	18	0	1.04
3	PIT	16	0	1.10
3	SEA	11	0	0.62
4	PIT	4	0	0.38
4	SEA	1	0	0.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 Seattle Kraken

Expected: 3.8 - 2.2