Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-11-22 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 2 Dallas Stars (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 50.7%

DAL: 49.3%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.08

DAL: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Devin Cooley - 4-4-2 | 0.914 SV% | 2.40 GAA

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

Stat	CGY	DAL
Season SV%	0.914	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	2.44

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Devin Cooley	33	30	3	90.9%	4.63	3	1.63
DAL	Casey DeSmith	36	32	4	88.9%	4.77	4	0.77

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs DAL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	DAL 4 - 3 CGY	DAL	DAL
2026-03-03	CGY 1 - 6 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-11-22	CGY 3 - 2 DAL	CGY	CGY
2025-03-27	CGY 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-03-06	DAL 3 - 2 CGY	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	10	2	0.81
1	DAL	16	1	1.48
2	CGY	23	0	1.07
2	DAL	12	1	0.91
3	CGY	13	0	0.88
3	DAL	12	0	0.97
4	CGY	1	0	0.16
4	DAL	1	0	0.07
5	CGY	4	2	1.84
5	DAL	4	1	1.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1