Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-11-22 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 2 Dallas Stars (SO)

Win Probability

CGY: 53.9%

DAL: 46.1%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.11

DAL: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs DAL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	DAL 4 - 3 CGY	DAL	DAL
2026-03-03	CGY 1 - 6 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-11-22	CGY 3 - 2 DAL	CGY	CGY
2025-03-27	CGY 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-03-06	DAL 3 - 2 CGY	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	10	2	0.81
1	DAL	16	1	1.48
2	CGY	23	0	1.07
2	DAL	12	1	0.91
3	CGY	13	0	0.88
3	DAL	12	0	0.97
4	CGY	1	0	0.16
4	DAL	1	0	0.07
5	CGY	4	2	1.84
5	DAL	4	1	1.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2