Vegas Golden Knights at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2025-11-22 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

ANA: 44.0%

VGK: 56.0%

Expected Goals

ANA: 3.23

VGK: 3.27

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

VGK

Akira Schmid - 11-4-4 | 0.895 SV% | 2.50 GAA

Stat	ANA	VGK
Season SV%	0.888	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.15	2.50

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Lukas Dostal	32	29	3	90.6%	3.20	2	0.20
VGK	Akira Schmid	33	29	4	87.9%	3.06	1	-0.94

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • ANA at home vs VGK: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-14	ANA 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	ANA
2026-05-12	VGK 3 - 2 ANA	VGK	VGK
2026-05-10	ANA 4 - 3 VGK	ANA	VGK
2026-05-08	ANA 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	ANA
2026-05-06	VGK 1 - 3 ANA	ANA	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	9	0	0.28
1	VGK	16	1	1.30
2	ANA	20	1	1.28
2	VGK	10	1	1.10
3	ANA	20	0	1.04
3	VGK	14	0	0.64
4	ANA	6	0	0.47
4	VGK	1	0	0.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.2 - 3.3