Carolina Hurricanes at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-11-23 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 1 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 42.8%

CAR: 57.2%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.94

CAR: 2.71

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Stat	BUF	CAR
Season SV%	0.903	0.865
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.46	3.38

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	30	29	1	96.7%	3.89	4	2.89
CAR	Frederik Andersen	21	17	4	81.0%	4.47	2	0.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • BUF at home vs CAR: 4-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-19	CAR 2 - 1 BUF	CAR	CAR
2025-11-23	BUF 4 - 1 CAR	BUF	CAR
2025-11-08	CAR 6 - 3 BUF	CAR	CAR
2025-04-08	BUF 3 - 0 CAR	BUF	CAR
2025-02-27	CAR 5 - 2 BUF	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	15	0	1.08
1	CAR	11	0	0.93
2	BUF	13	0	1.34
2	CAR	22	2	1.24
3	BUF	9	2	2.05
3	CAR	23	2	1.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown